Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Will an increasingly politically active generation change the political landscape?

As this blog is oriented towards all people interested in the “Next Generation's Republic,”and young adults in particular, it seems fitting to ask: “Will the young adults who have shown to be increasingly socio-politically active change the political landscape of America?” In a word—absolutely. “This year, 66% of those under age 30 voted for Barack Obama making the disparity between young voters and other age groups larger than in any presidential election since exit polling began in 1972.---PEW, November 12, 2008 (Carville, 2009)” That is a big percentage of young people voting for Barack Obama and there was an amazing volume of young people voting: period. “CIRCLE’s preliminary estimate, based on the National Exit Polls, suggest that youth turnout rose in 2008 for the third consecutive presidential election. An estimated 23 million young Americans under the age of 30 voted, an increase of 3.4 million compared with 2004. CIRCLE estimates that youth voter turnout rose to between 52 percent and 53 percent, an increase of 4 to 5 percentage points over CIRCLE’s estimate based on the 2004 exit polls. (CIRCLE 2009)”

There seems to be a positive trend in the number of young adults voting and if the STAT from 2009 is any indication they are voting for Democrats in increasingly greater numbers. The fact that young adults are becoming increasingly active in politics means they could be a decisive voting group in elections especially if this trend spills over into local & state elections. Why aren't young adults voting for republicans? “[...] The fact is, Democrats had a 19-point advantage among young voters. In 2004, the Democrats had only a 2-point advantage in party identification. In any other year, Republicans might be able to dismiss their disadvantage among young voters with the oft-repeated claim that youth simply tend to be more liberal than their parents, but this year they've got 19 points to explain away.” I think this large gap exists because the GOP is failing to entice younger voters with their (more or less) hard-line stance on social issues which seem to win-over older voters. In the 2009 Presidential election Republicans were on the wrong side of several issues, including the following: “the economy; the war in Iraq; and the environment. (Carville 2009)”

If the GOP is trying to reach out to young adults I'm lost as to how. Furthermore, as an opposition party the Republicans have seemed weak and unorganized. It seems as if the GOP may lose an entire generation and if current trends continue they may very well lose several. “What's worse news for the Republicans is the fact that youth didn't just vote for Obama last year—they volunteered, knocked on doors, distributed pamphlets, and drove other people to the polls. That's the type of investment in a candidate and party that cements political leanings. (Carville 2009)” Will the increasingly politically active young adult population change the political landscape? In a word—absolutely! (J.J.)

1 comment:

  1. Somebody just finished reading Carville's book... haha

    I'm pretty sure either you or Carville bent that first statistic just a wee bit. I have to admit I'm pretty ignorant with most of the stats and issues you listed up there, but I DO know that just because Americans voted one way when they were 20 that doesn't mean they'll vote the same way in twelve or sixteen years. As it stands, Americans tend to become more moderate as they age. Could we then assume that many (not all or most!) opinions at a younger age are produced by Far Right Bible Thumpers or Radical Leftists with a little to much energy?

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